With the fall holidays now over, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Oct. 21 that he would be returning his mandate to form a new government to President Reuven Rivlin. Two days later, the president gave the mandate to the chairman of the Blue and White party, Knesset member Benny Gantz. He now has 28 days to form a government to replace Netanyahu. It will not be easy — not now. It now looks like he will be unable to cobble together a majority to support a new government under him. He will probably not even be able to pull together a minority government, given the declaration of Knesset member Mtanes Shehadeh from the Arab Joint List. On Oct. 22, Shehadeh said that his Balad faction will not vote to support the formation of a minority government. If that is really the case, Gantz will likely find himself returning the mandate to the president a month from now. In that case, Knesset members will have 21 days to decide on one of their own to form a government. If that doesn’t help, and there is no way to resolve this crisis, Israel will have its third round of elections in less than a year.

If these elections do take place, it is quite possible that Netanyahu will no longer head the Likud party. On Oct. 10, the Likud Central Committee convened, to declare Netanyahu the party’s only candidate in this Knesset to form a government. But given the low turnout at the meeting, it is quite possible that even the Likud is beginning to come to terms with the idea that Netanyahu may no longer be the best candidate to ensure the party’s hold on power, even if he was once their ideal candidate. The possibility of this pressure bubbling up from below should not be discounted. It may even result in party members demanding that Netanyahu be replaced. It should not be taken for granted that these Knesset members will hand over the benefits of governance so willingly, especially after a decade in power. They may not be so keen to accept moving to the opposition benches.

Nevertheless, it seems as if the only person in the entire political system, who stands to benefit from a third round of elections, is Netanyahu. If it is finally decided to indict him, it is important for him to go to trial from the position of prime minister. The Blue and White party has no plans to let that happen. “A third round of elections could signal a crisis of trust in Israeli democracy. That is why I think that every effort must be made to examine every option. If it means avoiding a new election, no option should be ruled out,” Knesset member Ofer Shelah, a member of the Blue and White party’s negotiating team, told Al-Monitor. “There is, of course, one government that could last its full term, and that is a government made up of us and the Likud. We will insist that this government is formed as the result of a process in which we sit down with the Likud, talk and set guidelines. Only then other parties could join, based on agreement, and not as a bloc. Benny Gantz will serve as prime minister for the first two years, giving Netanyahu time to deal with his legal issues. If he overcomes the challenges facing him, then he will be prime minister [two years later]. If not, then someone else from the Likud will serve as prime minister.”

Given this political turmoil, it is worth noting the changes underway in the Arab Joint List. It all started with the Aug. 22 statement by the party’s leader, Ayman Odeh, that the party would be willing to join the coalition. This continued, when the party — excluding its Balad faction — recommended to the president that Gantz be tasked with forming a government, and with its refusal to reject the possibility of supporting a minority government. It did this even though the Blue and White party had not contacted them yet and despite Shehadeh’s declaration.