October was a month of dizzying developments in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) in northern Syria. First, Turkey launched Operation Peace Spring against Kurdish forces Oct. 9, as a result of which US President Donald Trump foisted the problem of imprisoned foreign IS fighters and their families on Ankara. On Oct. 27, IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi perished in a US raid in northern Idlib, a stone’s throw from the Turkish border. On the following day, his possible successor, Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir, was killed in a drone strike near Jarablus, a border town controlled by the Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army. Then, on Nov. 3, Turkish intelligence captured Baghdadi’s elder sister, Rasmiya Awad, and her husband in a raid near the Turkish-controlled town of Azaz.

An oft-asked question over Baghdadi’s death concerns Turkey: Was Turkey not aware that Baghdadi was hiding right under its nose, apparently for many days? It is a pertinent question indeed. The answers “no” and “yes” would both be a problem for Ankara for different reasons.

Some say it is impossible for Turkey to have been unaware of Baghdadi’s presence across the border, arguing that Ankara has never truly fought the group and has even offered it protection and safe haven due to ideological affinities.

In my opinion, however, Ankara was really unaware, and its inadequate efforts against IS both inside Turkey and Syria stem from capacity problems rather than unwillingness.