At some point, the indictment facing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will make it necessary to replace the head of the Likud party and the right-wing bloc. Once that happens, Knesset member and former Minister Gideon Saar will be the leading contender. After all, he was the first to issue a public challenge to Netanyahu’s leadership. According to an agreement between Netanyahu and Chairman of the Likud Central Committee Haim Katz, if the Knesset is, in fact, dissolved on Dec. 11 at midnight, the Likud can be expected to hold a leadership primary sometime in mid-January.
Netanyahu is Israel’s longest serving prime minister. Saar is a former minister of interior and education. The two men have very different styles. Unlike Netanyahu, Saar is popular among the leaders of Blue and White, including that party’s right-wing flank. Knesset member Zvi Hauser, who was Cabinet secretary when Saar was minister, is very friendly with him. The Blue and White party’s leaders have said on more than one occasion that if Netanyahu resigns, it would take them very little time to form a new government. It could be done “in an hour,” according to party leader Benny Gantz.
A poll conducted by Maariv Nov. 29 found that under Netanyahu, the Likud would win more seats (33) than it would under Saar (31). On the other hand, in a competition between the right- and left-wing blocs, the right-wing bloc under Saar would be the winner with 56 seats, two more than it would win under Netanyahu. Other polls show similar findings.
Saar enjoys quite a bit of support in the Likud. He ranked high (fourth place) in the Likud primaries before the April election, despite his bitter rivalry with Netanyahu. Then, after he challenged Netanyahu to hold a new primary for party leadership Nov. 23, a series of local Likud party council heads and mayors threw their support behind him. These included Meir Kadosh of Eilat, Carmel Shama HaCohen of Ramat Gan, Yitzhak Danino of Ofakim, David Azulay of Metulla and two prominent council heads from West Bank settlements, Hananel Durani of Kedumim and Yossi Dagan of the Samaria Regional Council. Dagan heads a powerful bloc in the Likud, which includes many settlers who registered for the party. He also has a direct line to the prime minister, so his support for Saar indicates that there is some movement in that direction. Saar’s camp claims that there are many others like these officials, who are waiting for the official party leadership primaries to announce their support for him publicly.
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