Turkey did not gain more turf in its Operation Peace Spring. Instead, the operation instigated developments Ankara wanted to avoid. For instance, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are engaged in a proxy war with Turkey in places like Libya, have improved their ties with Iraqi and Syrian Kurds. The Kurds, meanwhile, have regressed on the ground but gained new diplomatic channels. Next, the Kurds are making headway in their cooperation with Russia and the Syrian regime. Finally, rival Kurdish parties that had split in 2011 are now seeking ways to come together again.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had several military goals: to eradicate the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria and all its components; to establish a safe zone of 32 by 180 kilometers (20 by 112 miles) along the border; to build housing for 2 million refugees in that zone.

But it didn’t work out that way. Thanks to agreements signed with the United States and Russia, the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) withdrew 32 kilometers from the border, except at Qamishli. Turkey’s control was limited to an area of 32 by 120 kilometers, which covers Tell Abyad and Ras al-Ain. In Manbij, Kobani and Jazeera, Russian police forces and local units provide security, not Turks. Americans handle the territory that extends from Derik at the border to Qamishli, Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor, which is also the main US supply route. The Syrian regime army made a deal with the SDF to return to the border area it had abandoned in 2012.

Erdogan was hoping to use territorial domination to bargain for political gains, and he did not want the Syrian army to return to the border until he had achieved his goals. Erdogan is now using all these cards to isolate the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which form the backbone of the SDF.