Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has made little headway in restoring economic confidence among consumers and investors since economic turmoil hit in 2018, a setback that will inevitably bear on its political fortunes as it marks its 18th year in power. Indicators reflecting domestic and foreign confidence in the country’s economy remain lackluster even after drastic government moves to sway central bank policies in a bid to jumpstart economic revival.

The electorate’s economic grievances bore heavily on the AKP’s defeats in the local polls in spring 2019 amid a sharp downtick in consumer and sectoral confidence indices since 2018, when a severe currency shock fueled economic recession in the second half of the year. Soon after the elections, the government replaced the central bank’s governor and senior managers, moving to directly influence the bank’s decisions and stimulate economic recovery through rate cuts.

Consumers and economic actors, however, remain largely unconvinced, according to key indicators.

The consumer confidence index stood at only 58.8 in January amid ongoing touting of relative economic recovery. The index measures how consumers view their current and prospective financial situations and the general state of the economy. The more the reading slumps below 100, the more pessimism it indicates. Although the January reading signifies improvement from 55.3 in May 2019, the lowest level in the past 17 years, it remains a far cry from 72.7 in July 2018, when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan assumed sweeping executive powers after winning landmark elections. In other words, the index has declined 24% since the confidence erosion began at the outset of the new executive presidency system.