Lt. Gen. (res.) Benny Gantz has probably never faced as painful and cruel a dilemma in his entire four decades in uniform and as Israel’s top soldier as he is now confronting as leader of the Blue and White party. The March 2 election results maneuvered Israeli politics into the most complicated situation possible: On the one hand, a clear victory for the Likud on the party level (36 Knesset seats for the Likud compared with 33 for Blue and White). On the other, a no less clear victory for Blue and White on the coalition map (62 Knesset seats for the center-left bloc compared with 58 for the right-wing, ultra-Orthodox bloc). An impressive electoral victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in personal terms, but failure of his truly important mission — sufficient votes for a narrow government comprised of his political base of right-wing, ultra-Orthodox parties. Netanyahu desperately needs his own government for him to continue serving as prime minister throughout his trial.

Gantz has already made his historic strategic decision. He made that decision shortly after the publication of the March 2 election results, which showed that Blue and White could form a minority government if at least 12 of the 15 newly elected lawmakers of the Arab Joint List were to vote in its favor. Gantz decided to forge ahead with this move, no matter the cost. Yisrael Beitenu leader, the hawkish Avigdor Liberman, offered his silent support.

After the last election round in September 2019, Liberman hesitated to support such a government. With his visceral hostility toward the elected representatives of the country’s 21% Arab minority, he finally decided against it. But the results of the March 2 election convinced Liberman that there was no other way. In order to free Israel from Netanyahu’s chokehold, Liberman would have to swallow the bitter pill and cross what was until then a red line. He realized that the only way to crack Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing, ultra-Orthodox parties, which now comprises 58 Knesset members (out of 120), and to quash the specter of a fourth election, he would have to back a Gantz-led government, which would need the vote of at least 12 Arab lawmakers to be formed.

Originally, the intention was to make do without the votes of three Knesset members of the nationalist Arab Balad party, which is one of the four constituent parties of the Joint List. Most Jewish Israelis cannot stomach the idea of a government backed by Balad, which disavows the principle of a Jewish state, espousing instead a multinational state, and is perceived as more radical than the other Arab parties. When doing the math, if the 12 Joint List Knesset members and Liberman’s seven vote in favor of a center-left coalition led by Blue and White (without joining it), Gantz would have the support of 59 Knesset members to form a government, compared to the opposing bloc of 58. This scenario has Liberman joining the coalition at a later stage, once other parties start trickling out of the Netanyahu-led opposition to partake in the perks of government. Meanwhile, the government would be sworn in, Netanyahu would depart the official residence on Balfour Street and Gantz would move into the prime minister’s office. Toppling a government requires the backing of 61 Knesset members so that a Gantz government might survive if Blue and White, a hodgepodge of disparate elements, displays a modicum of political skills.