Turkey remains faced with a major dilemma on how to proceed in Syria after its latest deal with Russia led to a fragile lull in the rebel stronghold of Idlib but fell short of a lasting solution. Contrasting visions appear to be under discussion in Ankara, calling for choices that could bear on Turkey’s foreign policy in the long run. 

The most crucial provision in the deal with Russia, sealed by the two countries’ presidents in Moscow on March 5, is perhaps the one regarding the status of southern Idlib. The provision calls for the creation of a security corridor with a depth of 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) on either side of the key M4 highway and joint Turkish-Russian patrols along the route to ensure de-escalation. The two sides have divided control over the corridor, with Turkey responsible for the northern side and Russian forces — and by implication, the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — in charge of the southern section. 

The first Turkish-Russian joint patrol March 15 was cut short because of locals blocking the road to protest Russia's taking control of the area south of the M4. The patrols could only go 3 kilometers (about 2 miles), failing to reach even the critical town of Nayrab, due to what the Russian Defense Ministry described as “provocations" planned by militants. “The patrol’s route was shortened in light of plans made by radical groups not controlled by Turkey,” it said. “Terrorists sought to use civilians, including women and children, as human shields.” 

Ankara now appears stuck between the demands of Moscow and locals in southern Idlib, manipulated by radical groups linked to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main group holding sway in Idlib.