The latest Russian-Turkish deal on Syria’s Idlib province has opened rifts in the ranks of jihadi groups holding sway in the region amid a Turkish military buildup as part of efforts to reopen the key M4 highway.
The number of Turkish military posts in Idlib has exceeded 50 since the March 5 Moscow deal, which calls for the reopening of M4 and the establishment of a security corridor with a depth of six kilometers (nearly four miles) on either side of the road that links Latakia and Aleppo. Whether Turkey will fight the jihadi groups that reject the deal has been a key question for weeks. On March 19, a deadly rocket attack on Turkish forces was passed over with a brief statement by Ankara, which blamed the incident on “some radical groups” in the region.
Turkey’s approach thus far appears to favor negotiation, backed with military deterrence, over outright fighting as it seeks to compel Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant group in Idlib, into cooperation and intimidate other al-Qaeda-linked groups into toeing the line.
HTS has been ambiguous in its attitude thus far. Its pragmatic wing, made up mostly of Syrians, has sought to avoid unleashing Turkey’s military might on the group, but foreign members, who wield influence over the group’s ideological base, appear irked that HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is inclined to flexibility and pragmatism.
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