Ever since early March, when Russia and Turkey sealed a deal on Idlib, it's been an open question as to how Turkey will force the armed groups controlling the last rebel stronghold to toe the line. Since then, Turkey has doubled its military presence and, according to Syrian opposition sources, has a new plan to merge rebel factions into an “organized army” under the control of the Turkish military.

Turkey has responded in a lenient and controlled manner to protesters hampering Turkish-Russian patrols on the M4 highway, suggesting that Turkey prioritizes a silver-tongue approach. In the Moscow deal, however, Turkey renewed its commitment to eliminating terrorist groups. Yet the plan to transform armed groups into an “organized army” involves some of the factions on the target board in Idlib. 

In December 2017, Turkey gathered various groups under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army (SNA) as it sought to tidy up the field after Operation Euphrates Shield and to turn the armed opposition into an interlocutor in the Astana process. Factions that remained outside the SNA formed a coalition, called the National Liberation Front (NLF), in May 2018. In early October 2019, as Turkey geared up for an offensive east of the Euphrates, a total of 44 factions from the two groupings teamed up under the SNA umbrella. Yet the factions have retained their own setups, commands and flags. Though attached to “the defense ministry” of the opposition’s interim government, the SNA lacks a real chain of command. It is an army only in name.

Under the new plan, armed groups are reportedly expected to disband and join the new army.