The old adage that one cannot pursue an active foreign policy without a robust economy is proving true once again in the case of Turkey’s ruling party. With Turkish troops now on the front lines in Syria and Libya, the party’s claim at a bold foreign policy has been realized, but Ankara lacks the wherewithal to sustain its high-cost ambitions, as evidenced by its desperate quest for currency swaps with various countries, which has been going on for weeks. 

While the COVID-19 pandemic has badly aggravated its economic woes, Ankara feels pressed to open new chapters with estranged partners, trying to turn this extraordinary global turmoil into an opportunity. Atop gestures to the United States, Ankara has asserted commitment to its ties with the European Union and messaging with Israel has warmed amid rising stakes in the energy rivalry in the eastern Mediterranean.

Not all of those steps have underlying economic rationales. Since the botched coup attempt in 2016, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been increasingly surrounded by Euroasianists who support Ankara’s drift away from the West and are said to be influential in the military. Erdogan appears fearful now that this could trigger a fresh coup scenario that would bring his own end; hence, another reason to seek a reset with Washington.

The COVID-19 pandemic came as a godsend in this respect, providing the pretext for Turkey to postpone the activation of the Russian S-400 air defense systems, which was scheduled for April. The postponement makes it much easier for President Donald Trump to maintain his lenient attitude toward Erdogan in the face of congressional pressure for sanctions. And as a gesture of solidarity against the pandemic, Ankara sent medical gear to Washington in late April. In an accompanying letter to Trump, Erdogan said regional developments, especially in Syria and Libya, “have shown how important it is to maintain the Turkey-US alliance and cooperation in the strongest way.”