Turkey’s intervention in Libya, marked heavily by the use of drones, has helped its allies change the balance on the battlefield while fanning tensions with Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, the main backers of the opposite side, and sharpening international polarization in the region.

Over the past several weeks, the forces of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, aided by Turkish military coordination and drones, have reversed many of the losses they suffered against Khalifa Hifter’s Libyan National Army in late March. In an offensive called Operation Peace Storm, the Tripoli forces had tried to seize the strategic al-Wattiya air base southwest of Tripoli, but the March 25-26 thrust failed, leading to the loss of a stretch of the coastline all the way to the Tunisian frontier.

Yet in the first two weeks of May, the Tripoli government’s forces conducted at least 57 airstrikes on al-Wattiya in a renewed effort to capture the key base and stepped up attacks on Hifter forces stationed in Tarhuna, not far from Tripoli. On May 18, the base finally fell to the Tripoli government’s forces. Observers in Tripoli believe the fall of al-Wattiya will relieve pressure on the capital and end Hifter’s dreams of extending his control to the whole of Libya. 

The turn of the tide has led observers to speculate that “Turkey’s friends are winning” or that Turkey’s strategy has left Hifter on the defensive. Meanwhile, Egypt, the UAE, Greece, Cyprus and France issued a joint statement May 11, accusing Turkey of fanning tensions and instability in the region, including in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, where rivalry over gas resources continues to simmer.