Turkey’s government is drawing up plans to reopen the pandemic-hit tourism sector, a vital source of hard-currency revenues for the ailing economy, but “new normal” formulas for travel and accommodation could fall short of salvaging the sector and premature timing risks prolonging the COVID-19 contagion.

A return to the “old normal” appears a distant prospect for the global tourism industry, which, along with aviation, has suffered the heaviest blows from the pandemic. While 2020 is widely regarded as a lost year for tourism, the prospects of full recovery thereafter remain murky. The global tourism turnover was nearly $1.5 trillion last year, with services sold to some 1.5 billion customers. Extensive damage is expected in related sectors such as transportation, food industries and agriculture as well as sub-sectors catering to travelers. European and Asian countries had the largest shares from global tourism revenues last year — 39% and 30%, respectively — and they are now bound to lose the most.

In Turkey, accommodation and food services, which contribute 3% of gross domestic product, are expected to hit rock bottom, and losses in this field alone, including sectors closely related to tourism, are expected to shrink GDP by more than 5% this year. But instead of facing up to the realities and drawing up measures to salvage the future of the sector, Ankara has hastily proposed reopening formulas with dubious viability.

Almost all countries continue to enforce transnational and internal restrictions to curb the contagion, including suspension of domestic and international flights, full or partial closure of eating establishments and postponement of various tourism-related events such as fairs and conventions. Although some countries have partially eased restrictions, a return to the “old normal” to make up for the damage appears unlikely as long as the physical risks of the virus and its traumatic effects on consumers persist.