What's next for Turkish-Iraqi ties after deadly drone strike?
The killing of Iraqi border guards in a Turkish drone strike undermines Baghdad’s traditional flexibility toward Ankara at a time when Turkey’s Arab adversaries are seeking to draw Iraq to their side.
For years, Ankara and Baghdad have sought to avoid a rupture over Turkish cross-border military operations against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the outlawed group that has waged an armed campaign against Turkey's government for nearly four decades. The PKK is based in mountainous border areas in Iraqi Kurdistan, which has been outside Baghdad’s control since the 1990s.
Ankara would argue that Baghdad is not in a position to object to the operations because it is unable to prevent the PKK's entrenchment on Iraqi territory. And when Iraqis raised their sovereignty rights, Ankara would challenge them to uproot the PKK, which Baghdad could not do. In other words, Baghdad would protest to save face but would acquiesce to Turkey’s incursions.
Yet this seems to be changing amid a Turkish military campaign since last year, with Baghdad growing more vocal and assertive.
As part of Operation Claw, unfolding in phases since mid-2019, Turkish troops have advanced to a depth of 15 kilometers (9 miles) inside Iraq and set up more than 50 deployment sites. In an unprecedented incident Aug. 11, a Turkish drone strike killed two top Iraqi border guard officials in the Sidekhan area, while speculation was abuzz in Turkey that senior PKK commander Cemil Bayik had perished. The victims were identified as a general and a brigadier from the border guard, while a lieutenant colonel and a private were wounded.
