Russian arms exports it seems are fast becoming a tool in the intimidation tactics employed by both sides of the Turkey-Greece spat. This, at least, is the conclusion one can draw from reading Greek media reports over the last few weeks. The two Mediterranean foes, which had both been accused of breaking with NATO solidarity by purchasing Russian arms, are resorting to war threats in a dispute over the eastern Mediterranean territories. Meanwhile, the Greeks enjoy the backing of not just Cyprus — through which the Russian S-300 were at one point suppled to Greece — but also by France, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Russia must feel flattered it can have at least an indirect influence on the Turkey-Greece confrontation. That said, it is unlikely that Moscow will end up providing its resolute support to either one camp or putting much efforts into resolving the dispute. Indeed, the current tensions play in the Kremlin’s hands.

In mid-September, reports began to appear in Greek media suggesting the government is holding negotiations with Moscow regarding the upgrade of the Russian-made S-300PMU-1 into the S-300PMU-2 Favorit version. These days, the Greek press also writes that Athens may be ready to hold its first exercises in 15 years with the S-300s on the island of Crete. Even though the officials have not yet confirmed those rumors, the fact that those reports came out just as the dispute with Turkey was getting hotter implies that the leak might have come from the officials seeking to send a signal to Ankara. Ostensibly, the reason for holding exercises is the threat of expansion of Turkey’s oil and gas prospection in the eastern Mediterranean. This expansion is part of the Mavi Vatan (Blue Motherland) doctrine claiming Turkeys’ sovereignty in the Aegean, Mediterranean and Black seas, even though a key architect of the doctrine — Rear Adm. Cihat Yayci — had recently lost his position. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently provided an update on the estimated reserves in a gas field off its Black Sea coast, claiming it reached 405 billion cubic meters. Yet Ankara also claimed that the Mediterranean Sea, too, may contain larger reserves than believed. In reality, however, Greek exercises may well be a response to Turkey’s recent exercises with the S-400.

Seen in this context, reports on negotiations between the Greeks and the Russians do not seem far-fetched, especially provided Greek officials had previously engaged in such talks. In 2015, Greek Defense Minister Panos Kammenos announced Greece was holding talks with Russia concerning purchasing new missiles for the S-300 and servicing the existing air defense systems deployed to the Mediterranean country, all this despite the simmering Ukraine crisis and freshly imposed Western sanctions on Moscow. At the time, Greece was the only country deploying the Patriot PAC-2 interceptors together with the S-300PMUs, all integrated into one system. The Greeks also had two Soviet-produced short-range missile defense systems, Osa-AKM and Tor-M1. One should recall that the two S-300 battalions in Greece were not purchased directly from Russia but were instead shipped from Cyprus, which bought it off Moscow but was blocked from deploying the systems by the United States, the United Kingdom and Turkey. In 2006-7, the systems were transferred to Greece, yet it took almost a decade before the Greeks first carried out exercises with the S-300s in the Akrotiri fields in 2013 during the Lefkos Aetos 2013 (White Eagle 2013) military exercise.

Alexander Gorkov, former head of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Russian air force, told this author once that in private conversations the Greeks did not hide the fact that their negotiating manoeuvres, aside from security military advantages, had a political aim of sending a signal to Turkey. Yet in 2014, Athens, with which Moscow had active contacts at the time — some Greek parties even received funding from  Russia for promoting rhetoric beneficial to its interests — decided against showcasing the S-300 systems during the military parade because of the “intensification of the Ukrainian conflict.” The systems were taken out of the program so late in the day that the brochures handed out to the parade’s guests still included the S-300 demonstration as one of the agenda’s items.