The incoming Joe Biden administration will find that key Middle East fault lines are increasingly present in Africa. On one side is Egypt, backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. On the other is Turkey and Qatar. The fault lines include struggles for influence in Libya and Sudan, and increasingly North Africa and Western Sahara, Ethiopia and Somalia. Russia is also probing its opportunities at the expense of the United States. Here are five trends to watch:

Egypt weighs impact of Ethiopian civil war on Nile Dam talks

For Egypt, there is no higher priority than reaching a satisfactory conclusion in negotiations with Ethiopia over Nile River water allocation affected by the Grand Ethiopian River Dam (GERD). Egypt depends on the Nile for more than 90% of its water needs for its 100 million citizens. Cairo wants an agreement that will assure its fair share of water once the dam is built. 

For Ethiopia, the dam could reshape development for the country and the region. The dam has been woven into an Ethiopian populist, self-determination narrative. The country has rejected interference from Egypt or anyone else. The United States, the World Bank, and the African Union (AU) have all been involved in trying to broker a compromise, which would also include Sudan.