A readout from a Turkish National Security Council meeting Nov. 25 chaired by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed "pleasure over the brotherly Azerbaijan taking back its own lands which had been under occupation for more than a quarter-century."

That sense of a historic win in Nagorno-Karabagh could spill over into Turkish military planning in Syria. Erdogan has enjoyed wide latitude because of his close ties to US President Donald Trump, as we reported here, but that could change with the inauguration of US President-elect Joe Biden in January 2021.

Will that speed up Turkey’s timeline for action?

Erdogan made clear again at the Nov. 25 meeting that "a terror corridor would by no means be allowed along Turkey’s southern borders," referring to the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which form the core of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the key US partner in battling the Islamic State. Erdogan views the YPG as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which the United States and Turkey have labeled a terrorist group.