Gulf oil exporters look past Biden’s green energy platform

Sebastian Castelier

This picture taken December 12, 2019 shows (L) a view of the exchange board at the Stock Exchange Market (Tadawul) bourse in Riyadh displaying Aramco shares on the second day of their trading, along with a poster depicting Saudi Arabia's founder King Abdulaziz ibn Saud (C), his son and current King Salman bin Abdulaziz (R), and the latter's son Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (L) on display. - Energy giant Saudi Aramco's market value soared above $2 trillion as its share price surged again on its second da — This picture taken Dec. 12, 2019, shows (L) a view of the exchange board at the Stock Exchange Market (Tadawul) bourse in Riyadh displaying Aramco shares on the second day of their trading, along with a poster depicting Saudi Arabia's founder King Abdulaziz ibn Saud (C), his son and current King Salman bin Abdulaziz (R), and the latter's son Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (L) on display. — FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP via Getty Images

Oil market analysts believe US President-elect Joe Biden’s vow to reassess ties with Saudi Arabia over human rights concerns will not halt the kingdom’s oil exports to the United States, at least not anytime soon.

“I think Biden had to say those things because that is what the far-left progressive wing of his party believes,” said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former energy adviser to former US President George W. Bush.

The real challenge for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is expected to be Biden’s pledge to reenter the Iran nuclear deal — President Barack Obama's main legacy in the Middle East region that President Donald Trump described as “the worst deal ever.” Such a reversal could return Iranian crude to global markets.

“Iran is going to get to export 1.8 million barrels a day. Iran is the big winner,” McNally told Al-Monitor. When Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal in May 2018, Iran’s oil exports stood at about 3% of global demand.

Gulf oil exporters look past Biden’s green energy platform

The possible return of Iranian crude to global markets is a short-term concern for Gulf oil producers, which expect to be the last man standing in a decarbonizing world.

SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE

Continue reading this exclusive analysis

Original reporting and analysis unavailable elsewhere. Subscribe to AL-MONITOR to read this story and access everything we publish

Read By