ISTANBUL — As the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) met Nov. 11 in the opposition-held northern Syrian city of Azaz and fighters in Idlib prepared for an expected attack, a conference somewhat perplexingly on the return of refugees to the country still at war kicked off in Damascus.

Iran, China, Lebanon and Oman all took part in the Russian-planned conference in the Syrian capital. The United Arab Emirates, which had initially said it would attend, did not. The European Union refused, noting that the “limited returns that have taken place” have faced “forced conscription, indiscriminate detention, forced disappearances, torture, physical and sexual violence” and other issues. 

SOC President Nasr al-Hariri told this journalist during a Nov. 2 interview at the opposition body’s Istanbul headquarters that the latest attacks by Russia strongly hint at an imminent larger attack on the northwestern province of Idlib. He noted that the armed opposition groups still fighting on the ground are being restructured to prepare for such an eventuality.

Direct Russian military intervention has been key to keeping Damascus in control since September 2015. Earlier that year, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad publicly stated that a lack of manpower meant he would have to give up some areas to the opposition to protect other key ones. The tide swiftly turned after Russia got involved.