Algeria: Running on fumes
Unless oil prices go way up, Algeria is in a world of hurt.
Few were surprised when, a little over a month ago, Algeria's minister in charge of economic forecasts, Cherif Belmihoub, leaned into the microphone at a state radio station and announced, "Algeria is no longer an oil country."
Belmihoub's analysis was correct, but only up to a point. Algeria remains very much a country of oil and gas. It's just not making enough money to save the country from penury and sustain the generous state subsidies the government has been hoping would continue as a substitute for fundamental reform.
Now, with oil prices continuing the flat line they have maintained since 2014, the Algerian government is rapidly running out of time and room to maneuver. In parallel to this has been a significant drop in the volume of Algerian exports, with overseas oil sales falling by about a third between a 2011 high and 2019, with all clues pointing to a continued decline in the future.
Algeria has among the highest social spending of any of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) states, with the government picking up at least part of the tab for basic household foodstuffs, housing and fuel. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated that Algeria, just to maintain the status quo, needs an oil price of $135 a barrel. On Monday, Brent crude hovered just over $60, its highest for some time.
