Hot take on Israel's uncertain election outcome:

Once again, for the fourth time in two years, an Israeli election produced no clear winner and the prospect of yet another vote. In the March 23 elections, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc received 59 seats, two short of a majority, and few seats seem up for grabs at this point, except for the five seats of Arab Joint List defector Mansour Abbas’ Raam party (see below). 

Odds of stability: "Slim to None." Netanyahu could gain a majority if he could peel off some of the defectors from the other right-wing parties allied against him. Or Netanyahu could lose out if the center-left parties opposed to Bibi could win over the seven seats held by Naftali Bennett’s Yamina Party. Ben Caspit puts these odds as "slim to none." Also in the "slim to none" category is an arrangement with Abbas. Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc won’t be buying a deal with any Arab party. Caspit says Bibi’s flirtation with the Arab vote has led to a funeral, rather than wedding, for Netanyahu. Abbas, for his part, could end up being a broker.

Gang of Four: If there is chance for Bibi to lose power, it will depend on the rival "Gang of Four" pulling together: Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman, New Hope leader Gideon Saar and Bennett on the right, and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid on the center-left. Caspit, who notes that the four "would each give up a kidney" if Netanyahu willingly stepped aside, doesn’t see this outcome as likely, but doesn’t rule it out either.

More of the same: Israeli President Reuven Rivlin will soon ask whoever gathers the most votes to form the next government. That is likely to be Netanyahu, but you never know. Rivlin could also call for an emergency coalition government like last time, but the last effort flopped, and would require another deal with Netanyahu. Mazal Mualem writes that assuming the final vote tallies (expected March 31) stay on track, a divided transition government with Blue and White leader Benny Gantz (who overcame a kind of political near-death experience to win eight seats) "will continue to run the country for the next few months as Israel plunges into another election round."