Imagine Ross Perot, who ran as an independent in the 1992 US presidential elections and pulled in fewer than 19% of the vote, winning Electoral College support and moving into the White House instead of the winner, Bill Clinton, or Republican challenger George Bush. That is precisely how things stand in Israel, with one significant difference: Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party garnered 6% of the vote in the March 2021 elections, not 19%, but his prospects of becoming Israel’s next prime minister are looking pretty good.

Israel’s electoral system is vastly different than the American one. The prime minister is not elected directly. The job goes to the candidate who puts together a coalition of parties that enjoys a majority in the 120-member Knesset. By dint of the anomalous circumstances and political chaos of the past two years, Bennett stands the best chance of forming such a coalition and leading Israel’s 36th government. Under the emerging deal, he would serve for two years and then switch jobs with Yesh Atid Chair Yair Lapid for the second half of the government’s term.

In a prank of history more reminiscent of slapstick comedy than statecraft, Bennett — a distinctly right-wing, kippah-wearing ideologue who presumes to lead Israel’s religious Zionism movement — is riding a white horse at the head of the country’s center-left political camp, hailed as its savior from the clutches of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Bennett has been playing both sides of the fence in recent months with complex, risky and fascinating maneuvers. He promised his party’s support to Netanyahu should he need it to make up the missing numbers for a 61-seat majority, “proving” to his right-wing base that he could not be blamed for bringing the Netanyahu era to its end.

However, Bennett knew full well that even with the support of Yamina’s seven lawmakers, Netanyahu would still fall short of a majority. Bennett was counting on the head of the Religious Zionism alliance, far-right Bezalel Smotrich, to reject a government beholden for its majority to the abstention of the Islamic Ra’am party. Smotrich did not disappoint, deflecting enormous pressure from Netanyahu, his allies and rabbis. If things go according to plan, Bennett’s crowning will be attributed to Smotrich, who rather likes the idea. The way he sees it, Bennett has crossed the lines, leaving him the unchallenged head of Israel’s religious Zionism movement. A win-win situation is somewhat rare in Israeli politics, but that appears to be the case.