Hot Take: Why an Iran nuclear deal could be a win-win for rivals Rouhani and Raisi

Everything or nothing? The parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as well as the United States (which withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018), may soon convene in Vienna for the seventh and perhaps final round of talks to bring the United States back into the JCPOA fold. There is anticipation of a possible accord, and declarations of low expectations. An Iranian government spokesman said this week that "unless there is agreement on all the agenda points, there is practically no deal," apparently referring not just to relief from banking and oil sanctions, as we report here, but also those sanctions imposed on individuals and entities linked to Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and maybe even incoming president Ebrahim Raisi, who takes office Aug. 3. A US official said June 24 that "serious differences" remain to be bridged in the talks.

Here come the Hezbollahis. Timing is of the essence. Raisi is part of a wave of "Hezbollahis," the vanguard of what Khamenei calls the "second revolution" to cultivate "a faithful, revolutionary, professional and confident manpower." Ali Hashem writes that "while the decision to engage with the West will not change" under Raisi, "the tone, expectations and ceiling are going to see a clear shift."

Raisi’s window. Before that happens, Raisi and Iran’s outgoing president, Hassan Rouhani, could score a win-win if they can revive the JCPOA in some form. Rouhani wants the win for his own legacy, as the deal was both his greatest achievement and, after the Trump administration withdrew from it, a mortal blow to the moderate-reformist camp. Raisi, as Sanam Vakil writes, knows that "the swiftest formula" to address Iran’s deep economic challenges "begins through the revival of the JCPOA." If Iran can close the deal before he takes office, Raisi can reap the benefits while not having to be seen as compromising with the West.