The Taliban's rapid takeover of Afghanistan has raised major questions about what comes next for Iran-Afghan ties. The turmoil in Iran's eastern neighbor — one of Tehran's top export markets — will certainly have an impact on trade routes. Yet resulting geopolitical shifts could provide some opportunities for Iran.

It's no secret Iran’s relationship with the Taliban is complex. The Taliban’s emergence in the 1990s was based on a Sunni extremist ideology and a clearly anti-Shiite and anti-Iranian orientation. The two sides were on the brink of war in 1998 when the Taliban killed 11 Iranian diplomats in Afghanistan's fourth-largest city, Mazar-e-Sharif. Tehran also indirectly supported the US campaign to defeat the Taliban in 2001 and played a key role in establishing a post-Taliban national government in the country.

Two decades later and there are new dynamics, with parts of the political establishment in Iran developing more favorable perceptions toward the Taliban, who represent a group that provided a strategic defeat to Washington. Nonetheless, the Iran-Taliban relationship remains tense and distrustful. For now, the official position from Tehran has been communicated by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who stated on Aug. 16: “The military defeat and withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan must be an opportunity to restore life, security and lasting peace.” He also confirmed “Iran will work toward stability, which is Afghanistan's primary need today, and as a neighbor and brotherly country invites all groups to reach a national agreement.”

Assessing the economic impact of the new realities, there is no doubt that in the short term the rise of the Taliban will be a negative blow to Iran-Afghan trade. On the one side, the Afghan economy will suffer both as a result of a discontinuation of US and EU development aid payments as well as migration of many Afghan citizens. On the other, in a Taliban-led Afghanistan, the economic links that had been established over the past two decades will be undermined. These and other factors will lead to an anticipated economic decline and certainly dent the potential of Iranian exports to Afghanistan. It should be noted that in the past few years, Afghanistan has been among the top five trading partners and Iran’s annual exports to Afghanistan had approached $4 billion, whereas Afghan companies were exporting about $40 to $50 million to Iran.