Israel is going out of its way to prove that Hezbollah did not know in advance about the three rockets fired Aug. 4 at the northern border town of Kiryat Shmona. Military sources attributed the attack to an ad hoc local group of Palestinians from the refugee camps dotting the south Lebanon. According to the Israeli army, Hezbollah was not involved in the incident and did not greenlight the attack as it lacks the time, energy and resources for such an initiative. According to a senior military source, the hold of the pro-Iran Shiite organization on southern Lebanon is weaker today than it was in the past due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in Beirut and the resulting domestic pressure on Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, meaning he may not necessarily be apprised such activity.

Still, it is hard to ignore the facts. Katyusha rockets were fired from southern Lebanon into the Galilee panhandle five times in recent months. At this rate, the children of Kiryat Shmona and its surroundings along the Lebanon border will share the experience of those living in the communities on Israel’s southern border with Gaza. Israel has often stressed that the occasional rocket firing from Gaza, euphemistically known as “spillover” or “drip,” was the work of rogue Palestinian groups operating without Hamas approval. That concept lost credence a long time ago.

“There is no way that anything can happen in southern Lebanon without Hezbollah’s okay,” a former senior intelligence official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “We are deluding ourselves.” Despite the crisis in Lebanon and the pressure on Nasrallah, he added, southern Lebanon is his bailiwick “and nothing happens there against his will.” Israel is busy ramping up international diplomatic pressure on Iran following the July 29 drone attack on the Israeli-managed Mercer Street tanker and it does not want to be diverted by clashes on its northern border and risk igniting the entire front.

Out of the three rockets fired at Israel on Aug. 4, two landed in uninhabited areas of Kiryat Shmona, setting brush fires. The Israel Defense Forces responded with an unusual barrage of some 100 artillery shells toward what it calls the “launch site,” which is a way of saying that the Israelis, too, were firing at uninhabited areas to avoid hitting local Lebanese residents. But the shelling was only the start. A few hours later, Israel's air force struck targets in southern Lebanon for the first time in seven years. This attack did not produce casualties, either.