Hot Take: Don’t rule out an Iran nuclear deal just yet (four reasons why)

Hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi took office as president of Iran on Aug. 3, and the conventional wisdom is that a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, just got a lot harder.

Here come the Hezbollahis. With Raisi comes a cadre of more revolutionary regime loyalists associated with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; they have been referred to as the "New Hezbollahis" by Ali Hashem. This doesn’t necessarily mean, however, that Raisi doesn’t have a pragmatic streak, or won’t deal with the West. "It’s possible to foresee that while the decision to engage with the West will not change, the tone, expectations and ceiling are going to see a clear shift," writes Hashem.

Rouhani sees law as obstacle. Outgoing Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, in an interview Aug. 2 reported by Amwaj.media, said Raisi may be bound by a law passed by the parliament in December 2020 that compels the government to adopt a series of escalatory nuclear-related steps if the United States does not reenter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — thereby boxing in Raisi’s options.