Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might be counting on nationalism to sidestep Turkey’s deepening economic and political troubles before the presidential elections in 2023. Ankara has stepped up its military presence in Syria for a potential new incursion, in parallel with the Turkish parliament’s extending the government’s mandate for military operations in Syria for another two years. 

The main opposition CHP voted against the motion for the first time, alongside Turkey's pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party. Unlike the previous extensions for another year, the latest motion grants a 24-month term to the government  — a move that both opposition parties argue is to benefit Erdogan’s election calculus. 

The motion designates all Syrian regions with US-backed Syrian Kurdish groups, namely Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and People’s Protection Units (YPG) and their affiliates, as areas where threat of “terrorism escalates.” While Idlib is mainly controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which Turkey designated as a terrorist group, Ankara deems it an area where stability needs to be maintained. The mandate, accordingly, effectively aims at Kurdish-held areas. 

In addition to the parliamentary mandate, a potential operation would also require green lights from Moscow and Washington. But even without those approvals, Ankara has already mobilized its forces as if the operation was imminent.