At the end of Operation Guardian of the Walls half a year ago, Israel estimated that a renewed conflict with the Gaza Strip was only a matter of time, even a short time. As a result, the Israel Defense Forces was instructed to prepare for a renewed escalation with the Gaza Strip, and the Intelligence Branch renewed its target bank in Gaza. In actuality, despite Hamas’ threats and its sense that it had the upper hand in the last conflict, the last half year was one of the quietest between Israel and Gaza. And since the operation, only five rockets have been fired toward Israel.
According to Israeli estimates, there are several reasons for the relative quiet.
The first is Israeli deterrence, which, according to the security establishment, remains strong. Another reason is the civil policy of Israel in Gaza under the current government, which, among other things, allows 10,000 Gazans to work in Israel. According to reports in recent days, this number could soon increase to 15,000. A third reason, perhaps the most significant, is Egyptian mediation efforts to reach an Israel-Hamas agreement, which are continuing intensively and are apparently restraining Hamas.
With this goal in mind, an Egyptian intelligence delegation visited the Gaza Strip in mid-December. But while Egyptian mediators were mediating, threats were heard from Gaza of starting another conflict with Israel. The official reason for the threats was the conditions for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons. These had been changed as part of the steps the Israel Prisons Authority has taken to tighten internal security following the September escape of six prisoners from Gilboa Prison.
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