Skip to main content

Israel weighs options, timing of possible military strike on Iran

Despite deadlock in Vienna, expert/technical talks may have a faint pulse.

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani.
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani (R), and members of his delegation are seen leaving the Coburg Palais, venue of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action meeting aimed at reviving the Iran nuclear deal, in Vienna on Dec. 3, 2021. — JOE KLAMAR/AFP via Getty Images

The parties to the now-fractured accord on Iran’s nuclear program, as well as the United States (which withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, in May 2018), are unlikely to reach an agreement this week on piecing a deal back together.

Veteran US diplomat Aaron David Miller writes at CNN this week that “having spent a couple decades in and around failing Arab-Israeli negotiations, I know a negotiation that's in serious trouble when I see one.” 

Israel, meanwhile, has been on a diplomatic blitz to scuttle the talks while pitching and prepping for a military option as the best means, at the appropriate time, to thwart a possible Iranian nuclear weapon.

While the basic outlines of a deal are clear — sanctions relief in return for Iran re-committing to nuclear enrichment levels outlined in the JCPOA — the details and the choreography of who goes first are slow going.

SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE

Continue reading this exclusive analysis

Original reporting and analysis unavailable elsewhere. Subscribe to AL-MONITOR to read this story and access everything we publish