With economic turbulence rattling Turkey’s economy, the question is rising of whether Ankara can maintain its grip on Syria’s opposition-held areas where the Turkish lira is the de facto currency.

The meltdown in the lira has heated up the in-house rivalries over financial resources between armed opposition factions and fueled public discontent in opposition-held areas. The turmoil threatens to erode Turkish-backed militia’s control in al-Bab, Jarablus, Azaz, Afrin, Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain.

Similarly, the deteriorating economic situation may undermine the authority of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant jihadi group in Idlib, where Turkey’s heavy military deployments along the strategic M4 highway serve as a shield against the Syrian government forces. 

The HTS seems to regret its decision to use Turkish lira in the region under its control as prices of oil and some staple food items including bread have skyrocketed. Price of a loaf doubled to 5 liras despite HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s pledge to subsidize the bread. Watad petroleum, an oil company linked to the HTS, meanwhile, indexed its prices to the US dollar, converting from the lira.