Hot take: Congress could complicate — but not derail — Biden’s efforts to resurrect Iran nuclear accord

The nuclear deal’s opponents in Congress are mostly powerless to prevent the administration from rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). But Senate Republicans are demanding input, warning they have a “full range of options and leverage available” to block implementation if Biden dismisses their oversight role. 

The latest: In a letter to the president led by Texas Senator Ted Cruz on Monday, 33 Republicans senators cite the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 (INARA), which requires a congressional review of “any agreement related to the nuclear program with Iran.” 

Why it matters: Congress could then pass a joint resolution of disapproval but would need a two-thirds majority to counter a presidential veto. Republicans, who in 2015 commanded both chambers, tried this but lacked the necessary Senate votes to overcome a Democratic filibuster on a procedural vote. 

Once again this time, the deal is sure to survive Congress; even with some Democrats opposed to a nuclear deal, the numbers would not make a two-thirds majority. But as the Cruz-led letter indicates, Republicans are prepared for a fight that will “underscore the lack of political consensus for Biden's deal and heighten fears in Iran that the United States is going to walk away again,” writes former Bush administration official Stephen Rademaker. 

For the record: There’s some question over whether a return to the JCPOA without modifications would even trigger an INARA-mandated review. 

State Department deputy spokesperson Jalina Porter told reporters on Tuesday that the administration is “committed to ensuring the requirements of INARA are satisfied.” But she declined to say whether the administration would submit a potential deal for lawmakers to approve. 
 
“If all we’re talking about is a return to the original agreement, that already went through Congressional review,” said Barbara Slavin, director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council. “I don’t see that Congress gets a bite at it.”

“The real threat comes in 2024 if a Democrat is not elected, and you get someone in who thinks it would be a brilliant idea to walk out of the deal again,” Slavin said.