As Western capitals scramble to stop further Russian advancement into Ukraine — after the Kremlin’s decision to recognize the sovereignty of two breakaway territories in Ukraine on Feb. 21 — through a series of sanctions and other measures, Turkey’s reaction to the move was mainly confined to denouncing Moscow's decision. Ankara's response shows its limited capacity to play an active role in the crisis as a player that appears to be increasingly stuck between the Russian hammer and NATO's anvil.

Speaking on his return from his Africa trip to join the emergency NATO summit on Feb. 23, Erdogan said “it’s not possible for Turkey to give up” on its cooperation with both Ukraine and Russia, effectively ruling out any possibility of Ankara’s joining in the Western sanctions against Moscow. 

With a certain degree of prudence, it can be said that there is still room — albeit very little — for diplomacy to resolve the crisis and prevent an all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine as expressed by US President Joe Biden who said that he was “hoping diplomacy is still available” during his address to the nation on Feb. 22. Yet it’s also clear that potential efforts on this fold will be led by the American leadership and some EU capitals, contrary to Erdogan’s aspirations to spearhead a mediation process between two conflicted countries.  

Let aside being a mediator, Ankara has emerged as one of the collateral damages of the crisis as the unfolding developments reveal the irrelevance of Turkish foreign policy, defying Erdogan’s apparent expectations to paint his country as a regional powerhouse.