As the European Union scrambles to map out plans to wean itself off Russian gas amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its quest for substitutes might place Turkey at the center of routes for new supplies from Azerbaijan and Israel.

The flow of Russian gas and oil to Europe has thus far continued despite a cascade of European and US sanctions targeting other sectors of Russia’s economy after its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. On March 8, however, US President Joe Biden announced a ban on oil and gas imports from Russia, while Britain said it would phase out imports of Russian oil and oil products by year-end. The European Union is unlikely to follow suit with outright bans, given its much bigger exposure to Russian energy supplies.

Russia — the world’s second-largest natural gas producer after the United States and the third-largest of oil — supplies about 40% of Europe’s annual gas consumption and 25 to 30% of its oil needs. The EU alone imports about 150 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually.

Germany, the EU’s economic powerhouse, hesitated on sanctions in the early stages of the crisis but grew more supportive as Russian forces marched on Kyiv. Nevertheless, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz opposed cutting off energy imports from Russia. The replacement of Russian supplies “won’t happen overnight,” he said March 7 after Washington said it was considering an oil embargo. Germany relies on Russia to meet 55% of its gas needs, 30% of its oil needs and 50% of coal needs.