Anyone hoping for resumed limits on Iran’s nuclear program and resumed Iranian international trade can breathe a sigh of relief that the 2015 accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), appears likely soon to be revived. What last week had looked to be a Russian wrench dropped into the gears of negotiations on Tuesday became little more than sand — irritating, but not debilitating — as Moscow apparently backed down from over-reaching demands.
On March 5, in the context of Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had insisted that negotiations in Vienna on the JCPOA must protect Russian trade and investment links with Iran. He wanted “guarantees at least at the level of the secretary of state.” Russia’s chief negotiator in the talks, Mikhail Ulyanov, said on March 9 that since negotiations had not concluded, Russia had the right to raise new concerns.
As with other Russian demands concerning Ukraine, this was a maximalist position. And an unreasonable one. Moscow surely knew that asking to be allowed to conduct unfettered commerce with Iran would be unacceptable to every Western party to the talks. It also knew that impeding negotiations in this way would offend Iran, one of Russia’s only remaining friends.
But some Russians may have thought that stalling the Iran talks would help Russia economically by keeping a large portion of Iranian oil off the market, thereby increasing the profit from Russia’s own sales. The Kremlin also sees benefit in the United States continuing to be saddled with the headache of an antagonistic near-nuclear Iran.
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