Diverging from its NATO allies, Turkey has been positioning itself as an alternative platform in the face of the Russian invasion of Ukraine through a dual approach composed of steps that have potential to antagonize both sides. While Ankara has challenged Russian military calculus by supplying combat drones to Ukraine,  Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also trying to raise the prospect of deeper cooperation with Russia as the country’s economy is crippling due to the Western sanctions.  

The Ukraine crisis certainly has the potential to alter the course of ties between Russia and Turkey. Russian leader Vladimir Putin may counter Erdogan's double game by his own game plan in a similar fashion when a Russian jet was downed by Turkey in Syria in 2015 — by waiting for the right time to take its revenge and in the meantime benefitting from Turkey as a lifeline for the beleaguered Russian economy amid Western sanctions. Erdogan’s approach hardly guarantees a “safe game” for Ankara, particularly in possible encounter fronts with Russia including Syria and Libya.

Ankara’s decision to close its straits linking the Mediterranean and Black Sea to warships by invoking 1936 Montreux Convention’s wartime provisions have earned Turkey praises by Washington and other Western capitals; this decision came following Kyiv’s appeal for the closure. Russian warships in the Black Sea have effectively been trapped there by Ankara’s move and the decision has potential to undermine the Russian military presence in Syria. Yet, at least for now Moscow is continuing to support the Syrian government forces operations in southern Idlib with its air forces.

Although the move has widely been interpreted as a possible source of contention between Ankara and Moscow, the Montreux Convention remains a crucial document that effectively limits NATO and Western naval forces' access to the Black Sea during peace. Thus, Ankara’s Montreux decision is unlikely to antagonize Russia. Furthermore, the treaty’s provision that Ankara has invoked to close its straits now was included in the 1936 treaty with Russian support.