Prime Minister Naftali Bennett put the odds of a new deal being signed on Iran’s nuclear program at 95% — until a few days ago. Some of his associates even put them at 100%. “The agreement is ready,” one of his associates had told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity a few weeks ago. “It is on the table, alongside a pen. Only the signature is missing.”

However, this assessment has changed in recent days. According to his associates, Bennett now believes the prospects of a signature on the agreement are now 50-50. The US administration is still keen to sign, he told his associates, adding that Israel understands the American rationale but disagree with it. He then said that the whole business has reached a dead end over the issue of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

On April 20, reports said that contrary to previous reports, US President Joe Biden now seems determined to keep the IRGC on the American list of terror groups.

Bennett and his people view this standoff over Iran’s demand to remove the IRGC from the US list of terrorist organizations as a major achievement, albeit a tactical rather than a strategic one.