Lead: Food and energy price spikes add urgency to dam dispute 

Sharp increases in food and energy prices resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war have added urgency and concern in Egypt about Ethiopia’s plans to proceed with the third filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in June.   

Egypt 'particularly exposed’ by Russia-Ukraine war: Egypt is "particularly exposed" to the downside consequences of the Ukraine war, says Ranjit Singh, IMF assistant director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, including "high external financing needs, rising inflation and limited fiscal space." Adam Lucente has more here on Egypt’s economic situation. 

The stakes: Ethiopia considers the hydroelectric power potential of the GERD a potential game-changer for the country and the region. With the dam, Ethiopia could become a major energy exporter. Egypt depends on the Nile for over 90% of its water resources and fears the GERD could limit water flows. Sudan, which is allied with Egypt in the dispute, worries that the dam would accelerate flooding of its territory, which happens regularly during rainy seasons.   

Stalled diplomacy: Progress on a diplomatic agreement among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan remains stalled, despite the best efforts of the United States, the United Arab Emirates, the African Union and others to broker a compromise among the parties. In the last two years, Egypt has taken its case to the UN Security Council, claiming the GERD is a security dispute. The permanent members of the council have heard Egypt’s case and backed further diplomacy but not a resolution.