Barring dramatic last-minute developments (not a far-fetched possibility given Israel’s record), the Knesset will vote this coming week to disband itself, and Alternate Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid will assume office June 28 as Israel’s 14th prime minister. His term in the caretaker position will last at least four months, until elections are held, probably in early November, followed by negotiations on forming a new government, which could drag on for two months.

Throughout the upcoming election campaign and subsequent coalition wrangling, Lapid will be driven around in a heavily guarded convoy, surrounded by dozens of bodyguards, pinching himself in disbelief at having in some measure avenged the political debacle of his late father, Justice Minister Yosef (Tommy) Lapid. Will his son’s premiership 15 years on be a fleeting political episode, or a long-term incumbency? The answer depends to a large degree on the events of the coming months. Ultimately, it will be down to him.

The elections, Israel’s fifth in less than four years, will be the first time since 2009 that Benjamin Netanyahu, head of the Knesset opposition for the past year, will not be running as an incumbent. This is a clear disadvantage for the man who was Israel's longest-serving prime minister and had grown accustomed to the tremendous power of the post, to all its trappings and to the limitless possibilities to shape the political agenda during an election year.

If Netanyahu, who still enjoys widespread popularity, mobilizes sufficient votes in November to achieve a 61-seat Knesset majority, Lapid will go down in Israeli history as the shortest-serving prime minister after incumbent Naftali Bennett, who will have served just one year once he hands over power to Lapid. Both will have broken the 20-month record of Ehud Barak who was ousted as prime minister in 2001.