American news outlets portray Sweden and Finland’s prospective NATO memberships as a victory for Biden and a setback for Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Yet, their membership might cost the Swedish Social Democrats dearly.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s brinkmanship strategy seems to have paid some dividends, but the understanding reached between Turkey, Sweden and Finland was met by strong criticism among the Sweden public, particularly Swedes of Kurdish origin.

The four-way meeting between the NATO chief and the Turkish, Finnish and Swedish leaders on June 28 paved the way for Finland and Sweden’s NATO memberships after the three countries inked a trilateral memorandum addressing Ankara’s professed security concerns. Many observers, including the author of these lines, were caught by surprise by the breakthrough. It was followed by a long-awaited face-to-face meeting between Erdogan and US President Joe Biden, who reassured his Turkish counterpart that his administration would fully support Ankara’s bid to acquire F-16 fighter jets from the United States. The reassurance was also accompanied by rare praise for Erdogan.

The memorandum agreed on between Erdogan, Swedish Premier Magdalena Andersson and Finnish President Sauli Niinisto met the Turkish preconditions for supporting the Nordic countries' accession to NATO, leaving Ankara no reason to delay their formal membership invitations.