ISTANBUL — With Russian gas giant Gazprom this week again slashing its gas exports to Europe and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accusing Moscow of "blackmail," Turkey — as a non-EU state — may appear at first glance to be safely insulated from what many in Turkey view as a purely European problem.
The reality is that Turkish-Russian energy ties have been marked by frequent and sometimes highly confrontational disputes, as Russia’s recent cut of gas flow to Turkey — in what experts say was on unprecedentedly short notice — has provided rare insight into the nature of the complex relationship.
Turkish companies hold contracts for 31.75 billion cubic meters a year (bcm/yr) of Russian gas, under which Turkey last year imported 26.3 billion cubic meters, meeting 45% of its gas needs. Dependence also spells vulnerability, as Ankara discovered in January this year when Iran, which last year supplied just 16% of Turkey's gas, halted exports for three weeks, with the resulting shortage forcing the shut down of power plants and much of Turkish industry.
Ankara's decision not to follow the EU sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine would seem to make sense, but at the same time Turkey has supplied drones to Ukraine, which have been successfully deployed to attack Russian forces, and last month transited gas to Bulgaria in place of Russian gas that Moscow had moved to cut off.
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