A dramatic shift of control has been underway in Afrin and other areas held by Turkish-backed groups in northwestern Syria since last week, raising questions about Ankara’s calculus in its quest to mend fences with Damascus.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the radical group that controls Idlib province and is designated as a terrorist group, aligned with factions from the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) — the Hamza Division, the Sultan Suleyman Shah Division and Ahrar al-Sham — to storm into Afrin, the Kurdish-majority city that Turkey had seized in Operation Olive Branch in 2018. HTS and its partners ousted the Sham Front and Jaish al-Islam from the area on Oct. 13. The two groups make the backbone of the Third Legion, which is also part of the SNA. 

Faylaq al-Sham — one of the groups closest to Turkey, which held a key area on the route from Idlib to Afrin — displayed no resistance, allowing the HTS to advance. In Jinderes, a town near Afrin, two other SNA factions put up only a brief resistance. As of Oct. 13, HTS seized 26 villages and towns, while the Sultan Suleyman Shah Division, advancing from the west, seized 13 villages and the Hamza Division took control of the area northwest of Afrin.

HTS had previously entered Afrin in June amid hostilities between Ahrar al-Sham and the Sham Front but retreated after Turkey stepped in. This time the group did not stop in Afrin and moved toward the border town of Azez, which is part of the Euphrates Shield pocket held by Turkey and its allies since 2016. Other SNA factions in the area went on alert and fierce clashes took place at Kafr Janna, a key town on the road to Azaz. A commander of the Third Legion said his men had withdrawn from Afrin to prevent civilian bloodshed.