Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears bent on launching a new ground operation in northern Syria following airstrikes that targeted Kurdish forces but caused losses in the Syrian army as well, while still extending an olive branch to Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Damascus, for its part, has kept its reactions remarkably low-key, refraining even from saying how many Syrian soldiers were killed, while it urges the withdrawal of existing Turkish troops as a key condition for normalization with Ankara. Only one calculus could explain this situation in which both sides contradict themselves: destroying all prospects of the Kurds gaining a constitutional status down the road after their establishment of de facto autonomy in the north. 

According to Russia’s special Syria envoy Alexander Lavrentiev, contacts between the Turkish and Syrian intelligence chiefs have continued on a “fairly regular basis” — a statement that justifies questions about likely bargaining going on behind the scenes. Could Assad be acquiescing to Turkey’s strikes on Kurdish-held areas, even if grudgingly?

Erdogan’s plan, as he has frequently repeated, is to create a safe zone with a depth of 30 kilometers (19 miles) along the entire length of Turkey’s southern borders with Syria and Iraq. Speaking after the launch of Operation Claw-Sword, which has hit targets in both countries since Nov. 20, Erdogan said the security belt would be established “step by step, starting from festering points such as Tel Rifaat, Manbij and Ayn al-Arab” — all Kurdish-held towns in northern Syria.

Such an attitude could come off as undermining Ankara’s proposal for a new chapter with Damascus, but given Erdogan’s modus operandi, it is in no way inexplainable. It has to do with Erdogan’s pre-election strategies as well as Turkey’s relations with Russia. Since his Aug. 5 meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Erdogan’s reactions on any Syria-related issue, including security and refugees, have been in line with his reconciliation offer to Assad. On Nov. 21, he voiced hope that “things could get back on track with Syria, just as they did with Egypt,” asserting that “there is no place for hard feelings in politics.”