The Islamic Republic of Iran has been a state based on the revolutionary ideals of social justice, freedom and independence since it ascended to power in 1979. Throughout the first two decades of its existence, the regime managed to generate considerable social capital by lifting the lower-income classes out of poverty and urbanizing a large section of the country’s rural areas, that it is failing now to sustain.

Data shows that the social capital for Iran's urban population that was below 55% in the mid-1980s reached 76% in 2021. There were a number of socio-economic indicators such as life expectancy, access to health services, literacy and higher education that generated widespread legitimacy for the Islamic Republic among the more conservative segments of the population. Also, the application of a subsidy system that would empower the lower social classes was designed to increase the regime’s legitimacy among the mentioned target groups. Consequently, one argument in assessing the survivability of the regime was the fact that it could rely on a strong minority for its support.   

However, all signs are that the regime has failed miserably in sustaining the mentioned social capital. Though the accumulated legitimacy emerged based on socio-economic indicators, it is clear that expectations have changed as the population has become more modern and educated. From an academic point of view, the factors influencing the level of the government’s social capital are transparency and accountability, quality of governance, rule of law, nonviolence and political stability, and the fight against corruption. All are factors where the regime as a whole and successive governments have failed without paying attention to the shifting popular expectations. 

Interestingly, President Ebrahim Raisi had identified the issue and announced after his election in 2021 that increasing social capital would be his government’s “mega project.” “There is nothing more important than serving the people and maintaining peace and hope in the society,” Raisi said. Experts agree that so far the Raisi administration has failed in “serving the people.” However, the problems started before Raisi’s inauguration as president in 2021.