Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday pointed to May 14 — a month earlier than he had initially indicated — for Turkey’s crucial dual presidential and parliamentary elections, ending months of speculation on the timeline for snap polls.

The polls, called “the most important election of 2023” by Bloomberg Opinion columnist Bobby Ghosh, are one of the biggest challenges to Erdogan and his conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) in its two decades of power. The outcome of the tight race will determine whether the country moves toward a more secular and liberal course at home and more predictable foreign policy abroad, or remains with Erdogan’s authoritative policies, forceful diplomacy and unorthodox economic policies. “What happens in Turkey doesn’t just stay in Turkey,” Ziya Meral, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, said. “Turkey may be a middle power, but the great powers have a stake in its election.” 

While the country’s dual polls were formally scheduled for June 18, Ankara’s political and diplomatic circles have been hedging bets on early election dates, weighing in various components of the electoral equation, such as Turks’ economic woes, Erdogan’s newly found international spotlight, the new electoral laws and other factors that would influence electoral turnout, including the Eid break in June. As of last week, politicians — from Erdogan’s nationalist ally Devlet Bahceli to main opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu — pointed to mid-May as the date of early elections.

Erdogan signaled the date in his parliamentary speech Wednesday, which resembled a campaign kickoff. “On May 14, 1950, Adnan Menderes (Turkey’s first prime minister elected under a multiparty system) said ‘Enough, the people will have their say’ and emerged victorious at the ballot box," Erdogan told the AKP group in parliament. "The Turkish people will again put the coup supporters in their place, 73 years after the one-party era ended.”