The Biden administration says that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has not been on the table “for months,” but Iranian officials are saying that a nuclear deal is still possible. 

Both could be true — with lots of caveats — and the sides could be moving deliberately or not toward what many are calling a "less for less" deal in the absence of the JCPOA.

In not-for-attribution conversations with Iranian and other officials, some ideas of what a post-JCPOA arrangement might look like are coming to light.

One ironclad life lesson is that you can’t go back. Iran couldn’t bring itself to say yes to the EU-brokered proposal for a return to the JCPOA last summer. And the moment passed. Even if Iran now said yes to the previous draft, Washington might say no. The narrative and priorities have changed for the Biden administration. Iran’s crackdown on protesters and support for Russia in its war on Ukraine have moved to the top of the US list. The Republican House of Representatives and a possible Republican president in 2024 with hard-line approaches to Iran make the American political climate less conducive than ever to a nuclear deal.