Beijing hosted this month the first formal meeting of the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia in more than seven years. The diplomatic breakthrough is certainly welcome news and opens opportunities in the region. However, this deal rests on many recent unexpected geopolitical developments that have created shifting strategic perceptions and conditions for both Saudi Arabia and Iran to come to this decision.

The sustainability of this agreement is just as uncertain as the future of the conditions that paved the way for it to conclude. There were key drivers and perceptions/assumptions that led to this strategic shift in Tehran and Riyadh: first, the growing uncertainty regarding the US role in the region considering the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the strategic pivot toward Asia that has shaped a strong perception that the US role in the region is on decline; second, Russia's war in Ukraine and the perceptions that regardless of the results of the war, Russia’s challenging of the international order could lead to major strategic shifts; third, the future of Iran’s nuclear program with no prospects for an agreement in the short run, mainly due to Iran’s brutal repression of protests in the wake of Mahsa Amini’s death in Iranian police custody and Tehran's support for Russia’s war in Ukraine; and last, but not least, the political unrest itself across Iran.

The combination of these factors have led Saudi Arabia and Iran to rethink and adjust their strategies for engagement with each other, as well as other actors — the United States, Russia and China. Reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency about Iran’s uranium enrichment nearing 84% adds further complication as Iran nears a US red zone. With very few alternative options for diplomatic resolution, the region is headed down a dangerous path as the potential for military escalation grows. Uncertainty in the region increases the risk of conflict and both Saudi Arabia and Iran have a vested interest in lowering the temperature.

The US-Gulf dynamic