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Analysis

'We may end up missing Assad': Israel grapples with Turkey’s rising influence in Syria

Reports of Turkish preparations to invade northern Syria, coupled with Israeli officials’ statements of support for the Kurds, further strain the already tense relationship between the leaders of Israel and Turkey.

People hold a banner featuring Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as members of the Syrian community and supporters gather to celebrate the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in the face of an offensive by Islamist-led rebels, in Istanbul's Fatih district on December 8, 2024. Islamist-led rebels toppled Syria's longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad in a lightning offensive that a UN envoy called "a watershed moment" for the nation marred by civil war. (Photo by KEMAL ASLAN / AFP) (Photo by KEMAL ASLAN/AF
People hold a banner featuring Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as members of the Syrian community and supporters gather to celebrate the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in the face of an offensive by Islamist-led rebels, in Istanbul's Fatih district on December 8, 2024. — KEMAL ASLAN/AFP via Getty Images)

TEL AVIV — Two weeks after the fall of the Assad regime, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself facing a far more dangerous rival in Syria: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

Having at least partially orchestrated the collapse of the regime that ruled Syria for over five decades, exploiting the weakness of the Iran-led axis, Erdogan is now determined to position himself as Syria’s kingmaker. Few forces in the region could challenge his ambition, except for Israel.

"We might end up missing Assad," a senior Israeli political source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "Assad was weak, focused on his own survival. He had no territorial ambitions [outside of Syria] and he did not aspire to become the dominant power in the Middle East while dwarfing and pushing Israel out."

The Turkish military buildup of recent days on Syrian soil is fueling concerns both in the United States and Israel. Citing US officials, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that the administration is increasingly alarmed that Turkey and its Syrian militia partners are preparing for a large-scale military incursion into Syrian territory controlled by US-backed Kurdish forces.

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