As the conflict between Israel and Iran enters its fourth day, Turkey, the region’s leading Sunni power, is faced with an array of opportunities and risks. 

The longer the war rages, the likelier it becomes that an isolated Iran will descend into instability and chaos. The risks for Turkey, particularly if the regime collapses — for now, a big if — will far outstrip any gains as it struggles to stabilize its fragile economy and end a 40-year Kurdish insurgency led by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a leftist rebel group that has a history of tactical cooperation with Iran’s repressive clerical regime despite an underlying hatred for it.

This explains the flurry of diplomacy undertaken by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has spoken twice already with both President Donald Trump and Iranian President Mahmoud Pezeshkian in a bid to help mediate an end to the conflict and a return to the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran. Addressing the nation after a cabinet meeting, Erdogan confirmed that since Friday, Turkey had been engaged in "intense diplomatic traffic" led by himself and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to end the conflict, warning that Israel, which "has destroyed Gaza and bullied every country in the region, may come to realize its mistake, but by then it will be too late."

Erdogan has Trump’s ear like few other foreign leaders do, a connection that has been bolstered by the appointment of Tom Barrack, one of Trump’s most trusted allies, as ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria. “Barrack is one of the most influential people around the president and one of the most talented,” a White House official speaking not for attribution told Al-Monitor.