Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's grip over his country has never looked shakier amid Israeli airstrikes targeting Damascus, purportedly in defense of the Druze minority in its fight against Bedouin tribes and government forces in the southern city of Suwayda. The violence is spooking one of Sharaa’s top allies — Turkey — for whom any permanent fracturing of Syria along ethnic and sectarian lines, which it believes Israel is encouraging, would prove disastrous, analysts say.  

“This is bad news for Turkey, because despite US pressure, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu won’t back down, and the Kurds are feeling vindicated in their refusal to fold unconditionally into the Syrian army,” Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program, told Al-Monitor. “The past days’ developments expose how Sharaa is unable to provide security or maintain order in the country. The Kurds are saying ‘Who will defend us if this regime collapses?’” Tol said. “By the same token, Sharaa will be even more adamant for them to submit to his demands,” she added. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan assured Sharaa of Turkey’s full support in a phone call on Thursday. Turkish officials, cited by the pro-government daily, Sabah, claimed Ankara played a key role in securing the same-day ceasefire in Suwayda. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, said Washington had brokered the truce after nearly a week of clashes that left close to 500 people dead. Skirmishes are reportedly continuing between the Bedouin and Druze fighters.

Erdogan warned Russian President Vladimir Putin in a Friday call that the Suwayda clashes pose a threat to the entire region. He emphasized the importance of preserving Syria’s sovereignty, according to official readouts from both sides. Russia and Turkey have alternated between clashing and cooperating in Syria, where they backed opposing sides during the country’s 13-year civil war. Both countries have troops and bases in Syria.