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Analysis

How the Iran war is giving Turkey's Erdogan a big boost

Opinion polls show Turks turning to Erdogan as a steady hand during the war, even as the country's finances remain fragile.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks to MPs at his party's group meeting in the Turkish parliament on Jan. 21, 2026 in Ankara, Turkey.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks to MPs at his party's group meeting in the Turkish parliament on Jan. 21, 2026, in Ankara, Turkey. — Serdar Ozsoy/Getty Images

The Iran war has given Turkey’s authoritarian president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a sorely needed boost, even though it further imperils the country’s wobbly finances — the main source of the Turkish leader’s woes. Recent opinion polls suggest that in such turbulent times, even disaffected voters are once again rallying around Erdogan, 72, who has ruled over Turkey for the past 24 years.

Metropoll, an Ankara-based polling firm widely regarded as one of the country’s most reliable, reported in March that 45.2% of respondents believed Erdogan is best equipped to lead the country under wartime conditions. Ozgur Ozel, leader of the pro-secular main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), trailed with 29.2%.

More than 68% said they believe Ankara should remain neutral in the war, which is effectively what Erdogan’s government is striving for. 

“A 15-point gap between the two leaders is undeniably big. Almost 70% support for neutrality is equally significant,” Ozer Sencar, the president and founder of Metropoll, told Al-Monitor. “People want a safe and tested pair of hands in a global crisis that is unfolding right on Turkey’s doorstep. Erdogan, for all his other shortcomings, is perceived as that,” Sencar added. 

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