The US-Israeli war with Iran is pushing Turkey and Gulf states toward deeper defense cooperation and raising the prospect of a regional security alignment, but a NATO-like alliance remains a distant goal due to structural and political constraints.

Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and the broadening US-Israeli war are reshaping regional security dynamics, driving Turkey and Gulf states toward deeper defense coordination amid doubts over US protection and fears of Israeli dominance. The convergence of these pressures is reviving long-standing ambitions in Turkey for a regional security framework led by Ankara. Still, structural gaps and political constraints mean that any such effort is more likely to emerge as flexible alignments than a formal, NATO-style alliance.

Iranian strikes on Arab Gulf states since the war started on Feb. 28 have targeted critical energy infrastructure, including major gas and refinery facilities in Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, causing fires, shutdowns and significant supply disruptions. The limited nature of the US response has deepened doubts in Gulf capitals about the reliability of American security guarantees.

On Wednesday, Iran’s strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility cut some 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in annual losses and raising concerns about supply disruptions to Europe and Asia that could last years. As the attacks escalated, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan traveled to Riyadh for a consultative meeting of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers, during which officials discussed "permanent measures" to stop the Iranian attacks, according to Fidan.